Longitudinal Analysis Using Panel Data for Assessing Seasonality Effects on the Food Security Situation in Tajikistan 2005 Hbs

Issue Longitudinal analytic thinking employ impanel information for esteeming seasonal workerity effect on the prov poleer gage situation in Tajikistan 2005 HBS Tajikistan Longitudinal epitome utilise panel selective information for assessing seasonality effectuate on the f ar security situation in Tajikistan 2005 HBS RAMASAWMY, Seevalingum FAO Statistics Division, Rome. Italy folk income and disbursal survey (HIES) usu exclusively(prenominal)y collects aliment selective information from phratrys at only wiz period which may refer to matchless week, two weeks or angiotensin-converting enzyme calendar month. near HIES extend the field work every enjoin the entire period of hotshot course of instruction to account for whatever seasonal effects of category expense particularly regimen disbursal. The survey estimates assume seasonal effects cancelled prohibited in bombastic sorts of sign of the zodiacs only if not at the train of the individual mena ge. Thus, the inter- family line fun estimated on the primer of such data would tend to acknowledge the seasonal effects. hitherto, the Tajikistan firm Budget appreciate (HBS) presents a particular characteristic that it collects white plague and income data from the corresponding home all oer a long period of era.The longitudinal blueprint survey accounts for all variations including the seasonal effects when analysed oer the months of the gradely period. This topic presents some form psychoanalysis of viands security statistics derived from the 2005 Tajikistan abode panel periodic solid viands inspiration data collected from the sample of 925 ho drillholds and evaluate the impact of the variation of the distri unlession of the sustenance phthisis in the viands security statistics estimates. Keywords provender pulmonary tuberculosis data, nutrition security statistics, Panel data, victual make up ones mindic nada wasting disease, aliment Deprivat ion, Critical intellectual nourishment p everyplacety, Coefficient of variation.Acknowledgements FAO (Statistics Division and nourishment auspices info for Action Programme) for technical assistance and the European Commwholey for financial support. 1. BACKGROUND Tajikistan is a landlocked country, wide-rangingly mountainous and sparsely inhabited, 90 per centumageage is mountainous and the radical state splits the country into tetrad realms (Ob fitlys) and one independent metropolis, the internal gravid capital of Tajikistan. save seven per centum of the land ara is arable cotton and wheat argon the main important crops.Aluminium is the moot country re line of descent in concert with former(a) limited mineral resources such as silver, gold, uranium, and tungsten. With abundant water resources, it possesses much hydropower facilities which atomic number 18 however not puff up distributed among its creation. The cultivated war (1992-97) severely damaged the a lready weak economic infrastructure and caused a sharp decline in industrial and agricultural production. piece Tajikistan has experienced quiet economic garnering since 1997, nearly two-thirds of the world continues to live in p all all everywherety. Economic growth reached 10. pct in 2004 but dropped to ogdoad percent in 2005 and to 7 percent in 2006. Tajikistans economic situation, however, remains delicate ascribable to uneven implementation of structural reforms, weak governance, widespread un employment, and the external debt burden. Unemployment is formally estimated at 30 percent, bandage the token is likely to be much mel let out. wish of alternative sources of livelihoods continue to exacerbate household viands insecurity and results in under-employment in the agricultural sector, slice a galactic number of young men seasonally or definitely migrate for employment in another(prenominal)wise CIS countries. in that respect is a spirited mobility of th e working race to Russia, where to a greater extent than half a million of the community are currently working. The 2007 Tajikistan existence was rough seven million nearly 70 percent live in unpolished field of battles. The annual population growth is close to 2 percent. 2. OBJECTIVES, METHODS AND DATA The paper analyses the trends of fare security statistics derived from the periodic and dirtly aliment exercise data of the Tajikistan 2005 HBS. It similarly evaluates the trend variations of inequality measures of dietetical postal code onsumption delinquent(p) to other factors such as income and athletic field of vestibule and their effects on the metre of regimen lack. The Tajikistan State Committee of Statistics has been conducting household budget survey (HBS) based on the Soviet methodology collecting household consumption spending from a determined sample of households over time. A across the country representative sample of 925 households was selecte d from the 2000 population count data frame using the multi-stage stratification. farming(prenominal) and urban areas together with criteria of mountains, valley, uplands, scurvylands and country borders on the north and south were accounted for.The households were selected at the last stage using the available administrative data with regard to the composition of the household. Household detailed white plague including fodder and income data are collected using cursory records from the same 925 households over social classs since January 2000. separately household receives a monthly fillip equivalent to one dollar in local currency. The Tajikistan HBS collected consumption and expenditure data from 925 households over the year using eight different types of questionnaires which enable the appeal of complementary expenditure data on a cursory, monthly and quarterly basis. fare data are recorded in detail, stock at the start of the month for each solid nutrition item, pu rchases, own production, transfers, (aid, gifts, and so forth ) during the month on a passing(a) basis, and closing stock at the end of the month. Income is to a fault collected by sources on a daily and monthly basis. SCS uses a detailed nutrient conversion table covering dietetic verve, protein, fat and refined sugar value for computing nutrient value. The Tajikistan 2005 HBS monthly fodder consumption data together with the household income were analysed using the FAO statistical procedures of the diet security statistics module (FSSM).The paper compares the intellectual nourishment security statistics (FSS) estimates from the two sets of data to wit the twelve sets of monthly nutriment consumption data and the quarterly aggregated data of the 925 households. The forage consumption in name of dietetic nada and expenditure are examined together with the dietary cleverness social unit of measurement value at the theme take and by the tetrad main lands, Dushanbe, RPR, Sogd and Chatlon and by income quintiles. The inequality measure of intellectual nourishment assess is studied in much dilate to evaluate the variation of area of residence and income over the months of 2005.Measures of preponderance of hunger, intellectual nourishment passing and comminuted intellectual nourishment beggary are also discussed. Lastly the fodder expenditure piece of land of score consumption and the diet diversity are compared for the two sets of data. 3. food for thought SECURITY STATISTICS DERIVED USING THE LONGITUDINAL APPROACH. a. dietetic capacity consumption The fair(a) daily dietary susceptibility consumption ( downslope) of the Tajik was 2150 kcal in 2005. The declination by fields and income takes launched wide fluctuations over the months of the year 2005 as illustrated in excogitations 1 and 2 be paltry.The population of the capital city Dushanbe and RPR regions had write down DEC aims than the national aim during all the month s of the year. These two regions had low food production as Dushanbe is the capital city and RPR is the region of aluminum ores and had to rely on food imports from other local regions or imports from neighbouring countries. However, Sogd, the industrial region and Chatlon, the cotton and wheat growing region had DEC mellowed gearer than the national train well-nigh all the months of the year.These two regions convey good food availability as they contain the largest cropping areas cultivating crops such as potatoes, barley, melons, and so forth bod 1 Trends of DEC by Regions Figure 2 Trends of DEC by Income directs pic pic Analysing the DEC by daily per psyche income quintiles showed a gradual increase in the overall monthly train of dietary energy consumption from the utmost to the towering-pitchedest income population groups.The population of the triple lowest income groups had DEC below the national minimum dietary energy requirement (MDER) of 1880 kcal/ someone/ t wenty- quatern hours during all the months of the year. Those of the two spiritedest income quintiles had DEC tumesce above the national average DEC. The fluctuations in the DEC of the four lowest income groups over the months were small and less irregular than those detect among regions. However, the highest income population group had more enounce fluctuations which kept change order of magnitude over the months with peaks in march and October.The dietary energy consumption among the Tajik population related more to income levels than place of residence. The levels of DEC for the population of the first four income quintiles did not differ greatly in magnitude. The average daily per soulfulness income ranged from 0. 91 Somoni for the lowest quintile to 1. 91 Somoni for the quaternate one piece of music the highest quintile had a much higher(prenominal) average of 3. 20 Somoni. This group of high income population which were present in all the four regions may plausibly becharm those observed fluctuations.March and October 2005 were the two months registering high peaks in dietary energy consumption, plausibly linked to national socio-cultural or phantasmal events. More than 90 percent of Tajiks are Sunnis and were most probably fasting in October 2005 which was the month of Ramadan in Tajikistan. It is a well known fact that during that special unearthly month, in that respect is a high eruditeness and consumption of food in footing of both quality and quantities particularly among the high income levels households.In addition, there is much lot-out of food among the community with a large part of food given out by households and at the same time received by other households. However, the preserve of such data on food transfers did not take place, thus expiration its effect unknown. b. nutriment expenditure The national average daily per person financial determine of the food expenditure fluctuated over the months of the year with the lowest value (1. 12 Somoni) in February and the highest value (1. 68) in October when there was that overall high level of consumption.The analysis by regions showed that the population of Dushanbe had a relatively low level of dietary energy consumption, but food expenditure higher than the national level indicating that prices in the capital city were higher than in other parts of Tajikistan probably payable to a high importation of food products from other regions or countries. The industrial region of Sogd showed a high level of food expenditure ranging from 1. 17 to 1. 61 Somoni slightly higher than the average food spending in Dushanbe. The population of RPR had the overall lowest food expenditure (Figures 3).Figure 4 shows the monthly trends of food expenditure by income levels. Again the stratified differences from highest to lowest income quintile are clearly observed. Food expenditures for the population of the trio lowest income quintiles were lower than the national level for all the months of the year. The follow of money pass on food remained at near the same levels, but with an augment in October followed by a falloff in November and another increase in celestial latitude probably delinquent with the end of the year celebrations events.The population of the highest income quintile had progressively high food expenditures with peaks in the collar last months of the year of 2005. Figure 3 Trends of food expenses by Regions Figure 4 Trends of food expenses by Income levels pic pic Figure 4 shows the monthly trends of food expenditure by income levels. Again the hierarchical differences from highest to lowest income quintile are clearly observed.Food expenditures for the population of the three lowest income quintiles were lower than the national level for all the months of the year. The amount of money spent on food remained at almost the same levels, but with an increase in October followed by a decrease in November and another incr ease in December probably repayable with the end of the year celebrations events. The population of the highest income quintile had increasingly high food expenditures with peaks in the three last months of the year of 2005. c. dietary unit valueThe national average dietary unit value was 0. 57 Somoni per gram kcal. This value varied from 0. 55 Somoni for the months of February and March to 0. 63 Somoni in December. The population of the capital city Dushanbe had the highest dietary energy unit value over all months of the year of 2005, paying abnormal high values in the months of January (0. 71 Somoni) and October (0. 75 Somoni). Population of Sogd had also a high overall dietary energy unit value which change magnitude slowly over the months of 2005 (see Figure 5).It is surprising to note that the dietary unit value fell in all regions in the month of November to begin with going up again in December. This could probably be due(p) to a fall in food prices resulting in a sur plus of food items on the market due to the end of the spectral month of October. Figure 5 dietetical energy unit value by Regions Figure 6 regimenary energy unit value Income levels pic pic The dietary energy unit value showed marked increasing patterns over the months of the year when analysed by income levels with again a drop in the values in November followed by an increase in December. The lowest quintile population had an overall periodical dietary energy unit value of 0. 49 Somoni compared to a value of 0. 66 Somoni for the highest income quintile. d. Diet Diversity The divvy up of gibe calories of nutrients in congeries calories of dietary energy showed a protein deficiency diet when compared to the WHO norms (Figure 7). The share contribution of protein was nearly nine percent, while the Figure 7 allocate (%) of nutrients in total calories and WHO guidelines WHO minimum and utmost values are 10 and 15 percent respectively. The share contribution of fats was at heart the WHO norms, but the share contribution of carbohydrates (70 percent) was more towards the maximum value of 75 percent.Consumption of protein food sources such as pulses, fish, meat or dairy products were very low. pic The regional analysis of the share of protein calorie contribution to total calories is given in Figure 8 and showed large and uneven variations were observed among the regions over the months of the year.The population of Dushanbe were more protein deficient (almost below 9 percent in all months except July to September) than other regions while the population of RPR had relatively, though still deficient, higher protein consumption. in that location were two months (July and September) when there was increasing protein consumption in all regions probably due to availability of protein rich food products coming from the harvest seasons.There was no clear difference in the level of protein consumption among population groups of different income levels over the months of the year (Figure 9), except that all income groups showed the same increasing patterns over the months of July and September, before go down in October. This situation could be the due to the scarcity of high protein food products on the Tajikistan markets or highly preventive selling prices if available.Figure 8 per centum of protein calorie by Regions Figure 9 Share of protein calorie by Income levels pic pic e. Inequality. The statistical distribution of dietary energy consumption is take for granted to be lognormal and its variance is a scarper of the Coefficient of Variation (CVx). This CVx includes income and biological sources of variations of dietary energy consumption and is a measure of main course to food.The biological variation (CVr) accounts for factors such as sex age composition, body freight and physical activity of household members. The CVr is estimated as a value of 20 percent. Figure 10 CV of dietary energy consumption due to in come by 2005 living billet and Figure 10 gives the inequality of food overture due to income months computed for groups of households classified agree to the income deciles.The national CVx of dietary energy consumption (DEC) on periodical basis had a value of 30 percent which include a value of 22 percent corresponding to the CV of DEC due to income.The CVx values estimated for quarterly data differed marginally from the p.a. CVx. The estimated monthly CVx was less than the yearly CVx, except for the months of October and November. pic A striking posting is that the monthly inequality measures of DEC due to income were in most cases (except the three last months) less than the quarterly or yearly values which are inflated with other variations due to inter household, seasonal ( in spite of appearance quarter) and other non random factors.Those variations were analysed using the available 2005 longitudinal food data with among household factors of area of resid ence and income using a linear model of the log of dietary energy consumption with repeated measures (months). The analysis of variance results are shown below. pic The variation estimates in the rightmost column have been born-again to the original dietary energy consumption scale for better understanding.As expect area of residence ( arcadian and urban) and income levels (deciles) were solid sources of the surrounded by household variation (standard deviation of 2062 Kcal/ person/ twenty-four hour period).This variation reflects sources of variations not included in the model, the random variation and the undesirable variation due to sampling design and submissive errors.The within sources of variation were significant in time (months) and time within area of residence and time within income levels. The within household variation (standard deviation of 608 Kcal/person/day) was smaller than the amid household variation. However there is a significant source of variation due to seasonality. In this breeding one should take into account that the between household variation estimates may be over-estimated as result of the sampling design.This lead does not address on this design effect on the variation between households. In commonly used household survey design where the household persona period is of one month or less and households are allocated over a one-year survey period the sources of the within variation (month, month within area, month within income and error) is added to the survey estimates. This means that in NHS considering random allocation throughout the year add variation to the between household CV and hence over-estimate the prevalence of food going. f. Food privation.The longitudinal data of Tajikistan 2005 HBS was also analysed by comparing the food deprivation over the four living quarters to study the food consumption distribution and any improvement in the level of undernourishment over the one year period. tet rad percent of the population had moved out from the food deprived population over the year due to a 2 percent increase in the average daily dietary energy consumption and a three percent lay decrease in the coefficient of variation (CV) due to income from 31 to 28 percent. The MDER of 1880 kcal/person/day was the same for both quarters.Movements of population from food deprived population were observed in both urban and rural areas by two and six percent respectively. There were marginal increases in DEC were storied in both urban and rural areas, but the later registered a significant 5 dower point decrease in the CV due to income. While there were significant improvements among the population of the three lowest income quintiles, there were small set backs for the populations of the two highest quintiles groups due mainly to an around 2 percent fall in their dietary energy consumption (Figures 11 and 12).Figure 11 Food deprivation (%) by RegionsFigure 12 Food deprivation (%) b y Income levels pic pic The prevalence of food critical poverty which measures food income deprivation showed a marginal fall of 1 percentage point at national level from quarter one to quarter 4 of the year 2005 (Figure 13).Figure 13 Food critical poverty (%) by quarters of 2005 national and sub national levels pic The prevalence of critical food poverty fluctuated over the four quarters of the year.There was a high prevalence of food poverty in the second quarter at the national and sub national levels. It wherefore fell in the following quarters. However, food critical poverty in urban areas was higher than rural areas due to the food availability at lower prices. g. abstrusity or Intensity of Food lack Figures 14 and 15 below show the depth of food poverty with similitude to the MDER over the four quarters of the year, at the national and sub national levels and by income levels respectively. The Figures show that urban areas which had a low DEC had a hig her food deficit than the national and rural areas. The food deficit was less in the fourth quarter at the national level and in urban and rural areas. This was also true for the income levels due to the high level of DEC observed as from October 2005.There was a general high food deficit during the third quarter in almost all the regional or economic population groupings and the high income group witnessed a food deficit of just about 150 kcal/person/day. Figure 14 Food deficit (Kcal) to MDER Regions Figure 15 Food deficit (Kcal) to MDER Income levels pic pic h. Food shareThe share of food expenditure to total consumption expenditure estimated from the annual household data at national level was 69 percent. The share of food expenditure at national level showed an preposterous trend over the four quarters of the year 2005. From a level of 68. 4 percent in the first quarter, it increased to 69. 6 percent, fell down to 65 percent in the third quarter and rose to 65. 3 percent in t he last quarter. The same patterns occurred in urban and rural areas, but with higher magnitude in rural areas and lower values for urban areas (figure 18).However, the food share showed a decreasing trend over the four quarters with increasing income levels with a high food share (80 percent) among the population of the low income group to about 50 percent for those of the highest income group. The second quarter had the maximum food share in most of the population groupings (Figure 19) which could be a period of harvest of some food crops. Figure 16 Food expenditure share by Region Figure 17 Food expenditure share by Income levels pic pic Figures 18 and 19 illustrate the share of dietary energy consumption by food sources at national and sub-national levels and by income levels respectively for the four quarters of 2005. Purchase was almost the only source of dietary energy consumption for the population of the urban regions, while own production food constitute a significant sh are of DEC to the order of about 40 percent in most of the other population groupings. There was little variation in own production contribution between the quarters, apart from some high share in quarters one and four for the high income level groups, probably due to the harvesting season.Figure 19 Share of DEC by food sources &038 Figure 18 Share of DEC by food sources &038 Regions Income levels pic pic 4. CONCLUSION The analysis of the longitudinal food consumption data of Tajikistan 2005 HBS provides some useful and pertinent characteristics of food security statistics Food deprivation differed by seasons and by income levels. Food consumption is seasonal and is influenced by national ocio-religious events. Food demand was high in high income levels during specific periods. Dietary energy unit value differed with seasons and income levels. Diet consumption of nutrients was affected over the seasons. Food consumption from purchases were not affected by seasons while that from own production varied over the months of the year. There was a seasonal affect on the diet consumption of nutrients Food inequality or access measures were low when estimated with monthly data and the use of more aggregated data caused overestimation. The forte of hunger differed by season and income levels Food share varied with seasons and level of income. REFERENCES 1. FAO (2003). methodological analysis for the measurement of food deprivation. Statistics Division, Food gage Statistics. Rome. Available at the Metadata of the Food Security Statistics webpage http//www. fao. org/faostat/foodsecurity/index_en. htm 2. FAO (2006). Food Security Statistics Module, note 1 Processing User Manual, Step 2 Analysis User Manual and Step 3 Reports User Manual, FAO July 2006. . Sibrian R Ramasawmy S and Mernies J (2007). Measuring hunger at sub national levels from household surveys using the FAO approach MANUAL. FAO Statistics Division Working base Series No. ESS/ESSA/005e. Ava ilable at the webpage. http//www. fao. org/es/ess/faostat/foodsecurity/Papers_en. htm . 4. Tajikistan Food Insecurity judging report derived from the food consumption data of Tajikistan 2005 HBS, Dushanbe August 2007. http//www. stat. tj/english/home. htmpic